Bayesian modeling of Atlantic tropical storms
Nyamsuren Batsuren1 · Hyeongmin Park2 · Yongku Kim3
123Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University
Correspondence to: 1 Graduate student, Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea.
2 Graduate student, Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea.
3 Professor, Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea. E-mail: kim.1252@knu.ac.kr
2 Graduate student, Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea.
3 Professor, Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea. E-mail: kim.1252@knu.ac.kr
Received June 21, 2024; Revised July 4, 2024; Accepted July 4, 2024.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Abstract
- Recent research suggests a potential link between warmer climate conditions and an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. This includes a rise in both the number of tropical storms and hurricanes, as well as their intensity, measured by the total power they dissipate. To assess their relationship, statistical models using climate data are essential for understanding tropical storm formation. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework for predicting Atlantic tropical storm occurrences, with a specific focus on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Utilizing climate data from 1900 to 2002, we employ hierarchical Bayesian modeling to find the relationships between hurricane occurrences and various climatic factors, including surface temperatures in both the northern Atlantic Sea and global, along with different Atlantic oscillations. Additionally, other relevant issues are also addressed.
- Keywords : Atlantic tropical storm, Bayesian analysis, hierarchical modeling, sea surface temperatures
Full Text(PDF) Free
