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Uncertainty decomposition by scenarios in water resource projections
Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society 2018;29:1469-80
Published online November 30, 2018
© 2018 Korean Data and Information Science Society.

Jisu Lee1 · Ilsang Ohn2 · Yongdai Kim3

123Department of Statistics, Seoul national University
Correspondence to: Professor, Department of Statistics, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, Korea. E-mail: ydkim0903@gmail.com
Received October 2, 2018; Revised November 5, 2018; Accepted November 5, 2018.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
Water resource projections considering climate change are based on combinations of scenarios in multiple stages including the emission scenarios, global circulation models, downscaling techniques, and hydrological models. Each scenario is a source of total uncertainty of the water resource projections. Decomposing total uncertainty into components from individual scenarios has recently emerged as an important issue due to their usefulness. But there is no comprehensive research. In this study, we propose a method to decompose the total uncertainty into the individual uncertainty of scenarios. The proposed method makes it possible to compare the uncertainties of the scenarios by providing the relative contribution of each scenario to the total uncertainty. The results of analyzing the real data by the proposed method are presented.
Keywords : Analysis of variance, scenario uncertainty, uncertainty decomposition, water resources projection.