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Combining information from the multiple climate model outputs using hierarchical structure
Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society 2018;29:1481-9
Published online November 30, 2018
© 2018 Korean Data and Information Science Society.

Hyang Gon Jin1 · Ye Ji Chun2 · Sang Wan Kim3 · Soonil Kwon4 ·Joohyung Son5 · Yongku Kim6

1236Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University
45Numerical Modeling Center, Korea Meteorological Adminitration
Correspondence to: Associate professor, Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea. E-mail: kim.1252@knu.ac.kr
Received October 22, 2018; Revised November 2, 2018; Accepted November 2, 2018.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
The impact forecast is a more advanced forecasting system in that it provides direct information on how the weather changes will affect the safety of the people and the quality of life of the people while the existing weather forecasts focused on providing simple weather information. For the successful impact forecast, it is important to improve the accuracy and completeness of the probability prediction system. For this purpose, the probability distribution of the meteorological element was obtained by combining the three ensemble models and four single models utilized by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The distribution of meteorological element based on multiple model outputs is estimated using the hierarchical statistical model. It is expected to contribute to the prevention of risk of meteorological disasters and improvement of the life quality by constructing optimized multi-ensemble prediction system.
Keywords : Ensembles, hierarchical model, multiple models, weather.