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Forecasting for the number of marriages in Korea
Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society 2019;30:171-82
Published online January 31, 2019;  https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2019.30.1.171
© 2019 Korean Data and Information Science Society.

Jongtae Kim1

1Division of Mathmatics and Big Data Science, Daegu University
Correspondence to: Professor, Division of Mathmatics and Big Data Science, Daegu University, Gyeongbuk 38453, Korea. E-mail: jtkim@daegu.ac.kr
Received December 30, 2018; Revised January 11, 2019; Accepted January 11, 2019.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to predict the total number of marriages for women of childbearing age. The total number of marriages and the number of possible fertile women are closely related, and the total number of marriages and births are highly correlated. As the marriage age is delayed and the number of women who are not married is increasing, the rapid decrease in the number of births will be a disaster in Korea’s future. In 1991 and 1992, more than 372,000 first marriages were reduced to 206,095 in 2017, almost 150,000. Compared to 1991, the number of first marriage marriages decreased by 44% in 2017. The total number of marriages in Korea is expected to decrease by 31% from 2017 to 182,168 in 2032, 15 years later.
Keywords : Correlation analysis, marriages, population forecast, regression.