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Prediction for risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in aged 30 or older Korean using national health insurance service-national sample cohort (NHIS-NSC)
Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society 2019;30:1177-85
Published online September 30, 2019;  https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2019.30.5.1177
© 2019 Korean Data and Information Science Society.

Hyemin Wang1 · Sungsuk Chung2

1Department of Statistics, Chonbuk National University
2Department of Statistics (Institute of Applied Statistics), Chonbuk National University
Correspondence to: Professor, Department of Statistics and Institute of Applied Statistics, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, Jeonbuk 54896, Korea. Email: sschung@jbnu.ac.kr
Received July 1, 2019; Revised August 21, 2019; Accepted September 1, 2019.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
The mortality rate of ischemic heart disease (IHD) was the highest rate of any heart diseases in South Korea. In this study, we predict the absolute risk factors of IHD according to individual characteristics or health status. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratio of risk. Stepwise method was used to select a final model. After predictors were selected, the results were used to estimate the absolute 10-year IHD risk using Framingham risk score function and to calculated a simple point system. The total observation period for 106,167 subjects was 1,071,584 person-years. During the observation period, 4,627 subjects (4.4%) developed IHD with incidence rate of 431.79 per 100,000 person-year. Sex, age, smoking, drink, blood pressure, fasting blood sugar and total cholesterol were included in the final model. A Harrell?s c-index was 0.7321 as a measure of discrimination and the overall O/E ratio was 0.972 (95% CI 0.944-1.000). We have predicted a model for 10-year risk of IHD related to risk factors using NHIS-NSC. Using these results, if you have your health information, you will be able to predict your risk of IHD.
Keywords : Absolute risk factor, Cox proportional hazards regression, Framingham risk score, ischemic heart disease.