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An analysis of COVID-19’s impact on the deaths of year 2020
Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society 2022;33:439-78
Published online May 31, 2022;  https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2022.33.3.439
© 2022 Korean Data and Information Science Society.

Changhui Choi1 · Seungjoon Lee2

1Department of Insurance Industry Research, Korea Insurance Research Institute
2Department of Financial Regulation Research, Korea Insurance Research Institute
Correspondence to: 1 Research fellow, Korea Insurance Research Institute, Seoul 07328, Korea.
2 Research fellow, Korea Insurance Research Institute, Seoul 07328, Korea. E-mail: sjlee@kiri.or.kr
Received February 16, 2022; Revised April 18, 2022; Accepted April 23, 2022.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
This research estimates the impact of COVID-19 on the deaths of year 2020 by comparing the estimated number of deaths that are produced without considering the impact of COVID-19 using a lagged-regression method and the actual number of deaths. According to the test results, 2,427 and 2,634 excess deaths (the number of deaths that exceeds the anticipated number of deaths without considering the impact of COVID-19) were estimated from the cohorts data sets and cause-of-death data sets, respectively, which exceed statistically significant levels. In cause-of-death data analysis, the excess deaths of injuries, poisoning and fire burns were -2,427 and the excess deaths of respiratory disease were -2,624. In the analysis of cohort data sets, the excess deaths of male under 60 were -1,969 whereas the excess deaths of female over 60 were +4,116, which is a quite significant number.
Keywords : cause-of-death data, COVID-19, excess death, lagged regression.