Population projection of cities and counties in Gyeongsangbuk-do based on resident population†
Jongtae Kim1
Department of Big Data, Daegu University
Correspondence to: † This research was supported by the Daegu University (20200171), 2020.
1 Professor, Department of Big Data, Daegu University, Gyeongbuk 38453, Korea. E-mail: jtkim@daegu.ac.kr
1 Professor, Department of Big Data, Daegu University, Gyeongbuk 38453, Korea. E-mail: jtkim@daegu.ac.kr
Received December 12, 2022; Revised December 22, 2022; Accepted December 27, 2022.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Abstract
- The purpose of this study is to estimate the future population based on the resident population of cities and counties in Gyeongsangbuk-do (1998-2020). Based on the resident population of Gyeongsangbuk-do from 1998 to 2020, the population by age, male and female, from 0 to 100 years old, was estimated for 24 cities and counties in Gyeongsangbuk-do, including the entire Gyeongsangbuk-do, by 2060, 40 years later. The total registered population of Gyeongsangbuk-do reached its peak at 2,703,929 in September 2014, then began to decline in October 2014 and showed a steep decline after November 2015. The low marriage rate of adult men and women and the number of marriages contributed to the low fertility rate. This in turn affects the decline in the number of women of childbearing age, which in turn affects the number of marriages and low fertility rates. As a result, the population decline of cities and counties in Gyeongsangbuk-do is serious.
- Keywords : Cohort factor method, Gyeongsangbuk-do, population prediction, resident population.
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