Potential distribution of invasive alien species Lactuca scariola L. and Aster pilosus Willd in Korea†
Hee Eun Ahn1 · Hee-Jung Jee2
12Department of Information and Statistics, Chungbuk National University
Correspondence to: † This research was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No. RS-2024-00354881 and No. RS-2024-00440787).
1 Bachelor, Department of Information and Statistics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea.
2 Corresponding author: Assistant professor, Department of Information and Statistics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea. E-mail: heejung.jee@chungbuk.ac.kr
1 Bachelor, Department of Information and Statistics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea.
2 Corresponding author: Assistant professor, Department of Information and Statistics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea. E-mail: heejung.jee@chungbuk.ac.kr
Received August 22, 2024; Revised November 6, 2024; Accepted November 15, 2024.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Abstract
- Invasive species have been introduced through increased global exchange and demand for rare flora and fauna, posing risks of disrupting ecosystems and reducing biodiversity. This study analyzes the habitat conditions of invasive species Lactuca scariola L. and Aster pilosus Willd using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenario to predict their potential distribution. Using Nationwide Survey of Non-native Species in Korea from 2016 to 2021, occurrence data for both species were collected. Bioclimatic variables based on data from the Korea Meteorological Administration were generated according to the climate change scenario. Using these bioclimatic variables, altitude data, and occurrence data, MaxEnt models were built, and the results showed that all models had high explanatory power with AUC values above 0.8. Both species are likely to be distributed in low-altitude areas. Additionally, potential distributions indicated that both species would have a wider distribution across Korea under the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the RCP 4.5 scenario. Lactuca scariola L. is expected to be primarily distributed in cultivated areas, including the Seoul metropolitan area, the west coast, and Gyeongsang Province in the 2030s and 2050s, while Aster pilosus Willd is expected to be mainly distributed in Gyeonggi Province, the Jeolla coastal area, and the southern coast.
- Keywords : Invasice alien species, presence data, species distribution model, spatiotemporal data
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