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Proposal of new population extinction indices reflecting fertility rates, aging, and youth concentration in metropolitan areas
Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society 2025;36:71-85
Published online January 31, 2025;  https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2025.36.1.71
© 2025 Korean Data and Information Science Society.

Jongtae Kim1

Department of Statistics, Daegu University
Correspondence to: 1 Professor, Department of Statistics, Daegu University, Gyeongbuk 38453, Korea.
E-mail: jtkim@daegu.ac.kr
Received November 27, 2024; Revised December 19, 2024; Accepted December 19, 2024.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
This study aims to propose a new ’adjusted population extinction index’, (APEI) to address the limitations of the existing Population extinction index (PEI). By comparing the proposed APEI with the PEI, this research analyzes population extinction risk levels and examines the characteristics of metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas as well as major regions. While the PEI is useful for categorizing areas at extinction risk, it fails to adequately reflect regional differences. In contrast, the APEI enables detailed analysis of regional population structures by identifying not only areas at risk but also stable and sustainable regions. As a result, the proportion of stable areas in metropolitan regions was found to be 13-35%, while in non-metropolitan regions, extinction risk areas accounted for 21-46%, revealing significant regional disparities. Among non-metropolitan regions, Chungcheong showed relative stability, whereas Gangwon-Gyeongsang and Jeju-Jeolla exhibited particularly severe extinction risks.
Keywords : Aging, low fertility, metropolitan concentration, population extinction index, regional extinction